2023/2024 Premier League Season Predictions
Football is back. Back where it belongs. Many are relieved as they have sat perplexed as to how they fill the Saturday 12:30pm and Sunday 4pm void left by the end of the season. Guys, my head is hot. There is too much data to compute. This has been the most dynamic transfer window in recent history and I am absolutely loving it. Predicting a league table has proven to be a very difficult task, as across the board there are a lot of moving parts to factor in. I think this is an important time to consider each club before the season begins, so bear with me as I share my thoughts.
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We’ll be running it back again, this time expect regular updates on the themes emerging across teams and key fixtures happening each gameweek. I shall be a participant but also a facilitator to ensure we all enjoy this season as H2H leagues are a personal favorite of mine and quite underrrated. For the last few years I’ve not really taken FPL seriously or invested much time in meticulously picking my team- that stops from now…….
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Now to the real football. I have agonized and tossed and turned over these positions, but I’ve arrived at somewhat of a conclusion. For each club I provide a line or two (or ten) detailing the rationale behind the position and what to expect. Let’s get to it…
Manchester City: Something’s got to give, but not the Premier League. If they retain the league this season, they would be the first team to win it for four consecutive seasons. Whilst there is not much else to prove following last year’s treble campaign, securing this record could be the final triumph which leaves Pep wondering if a new challenge is necessary. His comments indicate the difficulty in achieving perfection repeatedly, but he is a master of skepticism. He will be well aware of this record that eludes them, and boy will they go for it perhaps at the expense of other competitions. Arguably the greatest domestic coach of all time, will he prove it once again?
Arsenal: Strength in numbers. Injuries to key players plagued Arsenal last season, most notably to Saliba whose absence coincided with their drop in form. Zinchenko and Jesus also spent time on the sidelines, but their summer signings should address last year’s lack of squad depth. Havertz, Rice, Timber, and Raya will add quality to the Gunners, but I don’t see a change in their fortunes this season. With that being said, look out for Caraboa Cup glory as I see an Arsenal-United final beckoning.
Manchester United: In Ten Hag we trust, and we have been proven justified so far. The guy seems to know what he’s doing. Time after time assured decisions are being made, much like Sir Alex (a premature comparison but I dare to dream). De Gea out, Fred out, Telles out, with Bailly, Maguire, Van de Beek, McTominay (maybe) all to follow, this is an efficient declutter. If we are then able bring in Amrabat and another defender, I shall be content. It has been a while since I was this optimistic about United. I didn’t expect Ten Hag to clean up the squad so quickly, it is truly the grace of God. Amrabat is world class- he will show himself to be, just you wait and see. But for the continual improvement of City and Arsenal I would have United winning the league, so head > heart on this occasion.
Expectations for the season if all goes to plan: Finish within 5 points of the title, get to Champions League Semi Final, win Carabao or FA Cup
Worst scenario acceptable: Finish 4th by the skin of our teeth, out of UCL group stages, no cup finals
Liverpool: Y’all thought I was finished? The disregard for who Liverpool are and what they have achieved under Klopp is astounding. They continue to be written off, underestimated and overlooked. I think they are the most dangerous team in the league and the team which could mount the most serious challenge to City. By the end of the window they will have a completely new midfield, which if it operates correctly will solve a large proportion of their defensive issues. A high octane, aggressively pressing midfield could get them back to looking like the 2018 Liverpool. Be very wary of writing this team off- they have fresh energy, fresh motivation, and a fresh start.
Newcastle: Two Hit Wonder. The Magpies are looking to prove that lightning strikes twice. The additions of Tonali, Barnes, and Livramento provide much needed depth as St James’s Park plays host to the Champions League. Too much given much is required so they should expect nothing less. Fighting with the European big boys is something very few of the players have dealt with before, so managing their midweek commitments whilst maintaining domestic performance will test their squad. On a separate note, Newcastle drew 14 games last season, the joint most in the league, and lost five games, the joint fewest in the league. I see that balancing out slightly whereby last season’s draws home and away against Palace, Bournemouth, and Leeds (albeit now relegated) will turn into victories and the occasional loss. Although their points total may increase, I believe they will be caught up by Liverpool and subsequently slip outside the Champions League positions.
Brighton: Will De Zerbi ball hold up? We were all fascinated by their play last season, we all marvelled at their poise. But the tapes have been watched, the games analysed. Teams are well aware of what they do and what their intentions on the pitch are- can they achieve the same level of success or more?
Chelsea: Redemption for all parties. Pochettino has something to prove. The players have something to prove. They know what the media have said, but it is time to do the business. With no European football to distract them the task is simple. Had they addressed their striking issue by adding an experienced forward alongside Jackson I’d have placed them ahead of Brighton, but there’s still more to see. They also need 2 more midfielders, with their gentle approach of Caicedo surprising. I thought they’d put the money down quickly and buy him, however this negotiation tactic isn’t working. Slap the £100m and get him, otherwise someone else will.
Aston Villa: Expect many more good evenings. There shall be many more good evenings indeed given their summer activity. All of the signings will improve the squad which looks on paper like one of the most balanced in the league. Emery’s love for cup tournaments should see them target the Europa Conference League and I do not put it past them to win it. Moussa Diaby is also a sneaky hood fantasy pick.
Spurs: I’m not leaving.. yet. Mr Kane shall leave on his own terms. I get why he’s not leaving but I also don’t get it. To be fair it is delayed gratification at its finest. Why move to a desperate Bayern side now when in a year’s time he will have the choice of almost every top club in the world. Conversely, Bayern still contain a number of world class players who had an off year- his addition could bring them back to where they belong. Either way he looks to be staying, which I think could bolster performance in the short term, particularly as teams adjust to their new attacking style under Postecoglou. Maddison should be a good signing for Spurs with his creativity a perfect foil for Kane’s proficiency. Actually scrap that, just seen the news Kane has agreed personal terms- Spurs are done. From 7th to 9th.
West Ham: Let’s not overreact. It seems like all is crumbling at West Ham, but they will do better than last season. Infact I think they will be a more well rounded team with Rice gone. Maguire will be very very good plus a midfield pairing of Alvarez and Ward-Prowse is not shabby at all. Everyone needs to calm down and let the dust settle.
Crystal Palace: Where do we go from here. Not much seems to happen at Selhurst Park, so there is not much to say. Eze is primed to rise this season, whilst Olise may be heading to greener pastures.
Brentford: Survival of the Fittest- I wouldn’t bet against them. Brentford had the joint most draws last season with 14. Given the loss of David Raya and Ivan Toney (unavailable until Jan 2024), proceedings may not be as favorable as last year, but I expect them to stay out of the danger zone given their pragmatic style of play. The vast majority of their draws were against teams placed below them, whilst 40% (6/15) of their wins were against side above them. I suspect that their record against the top six may worsen this season, especially due to Toney’s absence, whereas they could also struggle in tighter games against improving teams near the middle of the table. With this being said, Mbeumo looked good during pre season and could partially fill the void left by their striker.
Fulham: Just when we thought all was well. In what was a better season than many expected, optimism was high, but as with most successes more attractive suitors start to take an interest at those responsible. Paulinha’s name has been floated around across a number of European clubs looking for a midfield reinforcer, whilst Mitrovic has vowed to never play for the club again after his move to Saudi Arabia is being scuppered. What should have been a season to look forward to is one to handle with caution. Marco Silva is a good manager who will be able to navigate this uncertain period.
Nottingham Forest: Same again. They will be looking to build on last year’s progress and establish themselves as a premier league team. Lessons will have been learned and their squad is much more settled. Expect more of the same as last season.
Wolves: Left before it started. Lopetegui had enough and left before the season began. O’Neil has come in and inherited a fairly disgruntled team, but a team with much to work with. If positivity and goals can be generated, I see them staying up in the end, however it could go the other way and they could be done by January.
Bournemouth: Careful what you wish for. I get scared when a manager who kept a team up and overachieved gets sacked so that a more attacking style of football can be played. Let’s look at the stats: Bournemouth had the second worst goal difference last season (-34) and conceded nearly two goals a game. That doesn’t suggest a more expansive style of football is needed. History tells us decisions like this often come back to bite a club as they focus on progression whereas stability should be their initial focus. For that reason I see Bournemouth digressing slightly and hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone.
Burnley: They survived in the end. Many are excited to see the season opener between Kompany’s Burnley and City later today. During the season we will be entertained by their enterprising football, Kompany’s insightful post-match interviews, and their newest documentary, but there will be bumps and bruises along the way. Some days their attacking style will work, other days it will be to their demise. I do wonder about where their goals will come from- their top goal scorer last year was Manuel Benson with 12, so this could be an issue.
Everton: It’s time to go. The only team yet to be relegated, the time is now. After stagnating for far too long, it will finally catch up with then. So long Everton, see you soon, unless Calvert Lewin miraculously stays injury free this season. No player ever wants to go Everton, it’s a sad fate.
Luton: Punching above their weight, just not ready yet. Luton had not planned to be in the Premier League this soon if their stadium planning is anything to go by but they’re here now. I think it will be a step too far for them but an invaluable experience.
Sheffield United: Up you came, down you go. Looking alarmingly similar to the team that was relegated in the 2020/21 season, I don’t see what else has changed. They are clearly a very good Championship side, yet it never translates into the Premier League. Maybe this will be their year, but their squad looks thin and I don’t see much sign for optimism.
As I wrap up, I have a short list of player categories for ones to pay close attention to.
Let’s Pattern Up: These are the players with much to prove and not a lot of time left to do so
Jadon Sancho: He has yet to reach the heights of his Dortmund days at United so there is pressure on him this season to do so. He is by no means a guaranteed starter and will look nervously on if his opportunities shrink. Ten Hag has shown he is ruthless in getting rid of dead weight so Sancho needs to rediscover his form quickly if he wants to stay at United for much linger
Philippe Coutinho: Almost the forgotten man in Europe, what a far cry he is from what he once was. Firmly playing second fiddle to Emery’s starting midfield he has a lot of work to do to dislodge them or secure one of the attacking berths, otherwise he may end up like Hazard.
Odsonne Edouard: Upon his arrival at Palace I thought he could be the answer to their striking problems, but he is yet to convince enough to do so. We need more from him or Palace will be back to square one in their striker search.
Let Me Reintroduce Myself: These are players who need to remind the world who they are and what made them so special, lest people talk on their name.
Trent Alexander Arnold: I wouldn’t call this a redemption year, but it is one that he will use to remind people how we have never seen a right back like him before. Be not surprised if he tops the assists charts again. Focus on your strengths, minimise your weaknesses- he was never a conventional full back so should not be judged as such.
Phil Foden: Injury and form pushed him down the pecking order last year, but with Mahrez and Gundogan sold that leaves the door open for him to enter back in. His cameo in the Community Shield will help his case. He is still one of the most exciting young players in the world, make no mistake about it.
Raheem Sterling: He doesn’t seem to have that same burst of speed or change of direction. Last season he seemed a bit leggy and out of toxins not his usual sharp self. He has dropped out of the England squads as of late so will be pushing to regain his place
Let Me Live
Harry Maguire: As I mentioned previously, he has faced an inhumane amount of criticism over the last few years so this fresh start with West Han will be much needed for him. Under less scrutiny and reduced expectations, I expect him to excel massively in this team. Leave the man alone.
Mykhailo Mudryk: The criticism last season was premature. The whole Chelsea team were in disarray so he received a disproportionate amount of blame for their failures. With Poch on his side we should see him fare much better
This is an exciting season indeed- join me as we process it together.
To a simpler life;